A great deal has happened in the last week and a half, and the implications from these actions will be felt for a very long time. Many pundits and analysts have been discussing the effects upon US and Russian relations. But, there are many more issues that will fall out from these events.
The first is our own US Presidential Election. Up until now, most of the debate has been with domestic issues such as the economy and petroleum usage and alternate energy development. On the foreign affairs side, it has concentrated predominately on Iraq, Afghanistan, and the Global War on Terror. We now have another area that will factor into this decision and that is who does the American People feel will best handle this developing problem. This issue is not showing any signs of going away, and I fear these developments are only the tip of the iceberg. The next four years will be where much of this issue will play out, and America will have to add this dynamic to their voting criteria.
Secondly Georgia will need economic, humanitarian, and military aid for many years to come. The correct path of support may be initiated now, but again it will be executed for many years to come. This is not an issue that will go away quickly or be solved quickly. The election will also effect this immediately, so again, it becomes an issue of who do the American People feel will best handle this challenge.
Third the issue of the missile defense system will not be going away either. This is a development that is going to take until 2012 to be fully in place within Poland and the Czech Republic. The Russian Federation's objections are not going to go away either. Their fears that this program can be used to box them in, while unfounded, will effect relations for years to come. The comments by their General yesterday also deeply disturbed me in his overt threat to Poland. The implications for the US, NATO, and the EU, will effect how we go forward for many years.
Fourth, the issue of bringing in additional countries to NATO, namely the Ukraine, and Georgia. Russia has had serious heartburn with both of these. Their are some analysts who believe that the entire Georgia issue was engineered by Russia to effect this. Im not sure if I believe this, but it is possible. Whether it is possible or not though, it demonstrates the level of anger the Russian's have over the possible acceptance of these countries into NATO. This will be an issue NATO will have to deal with in the next few months, and I hope that they stay the course and accept their petitions for membership, and issue the plans for them to go forward.
With all of this being said, the current cease fire deal that was signed by both countries, goes a great distance in laying the ground conditions for success in Georgia. The problem now becomes the UN must in place a neutral peace keeping force to enforce this cease fire and a zone of separation while a lasting solution is found. The problem becomes how much vetoing will take place in the security council. We have already seen the rhetoric on both sides of the Atlantic towards one another. How much of this will effect the UN placing an International Peace Keeping Force in Georgia? I don't know, but I hope for everyones sake it will not.
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Bryan
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4 comments:
Major,
While I agree with your assessments of the long term implications of the Georgian War, the UN is not going to be a solution here. It is on the contrary going to be a huge impediment. The structure of the Security Council, especially the permanent members veto powers (read Russia) has historically been a block to any effective accomplishments. That structure represents the Utopian fairy tale of a post WWII permanent peace. The UN is flatally flawed and has become more a machine of graft and corruption for the worlds dictators than any semblence of a useful world body.
The Georgia War shows us not only the need for our own President to have a modicum of foreign policy experience, but the need for a new world body comprised of free countries. Sort of like US citizenship and voting rights. Be a good boy and follow the law, you get to vote and enjoy the full benefits of citizenship. Commit a felony, you go to prison. The UN is an oligarchy where regardless of what crimes you commit, you still have your seat at the decision making table, IE China and Russia.
Crunchie,
I agree partially. The problem becomes it is so easy as you were saying for a veto of any major effort from within the Security Council. I do believe it is important to start there, because of the legitimacy it adds. If it does become snarled though, then it becomes time for the US and NATO to take action unilaterally. The one thing in this life I have found is, "To thine own self be true" and if that means taking action without the UN Mandate for a cause that we know is just and right, then so be it.
I also think that is a paramount reason that NATO must be expanded. If you are a freedom loving country, respect human rights, and want to protect others from tyranical regimes, come on in and join the club. If not, well then just consider yourself on notice. That 17th Century way of doing bussiness, of abusing people, and not standing for human rights and democracy is over.
Hope you have been doing well:)
Bryan
Well said Major, my sentiments exactly.
And yes, I'm doing as well as I can expect. :-)
This is an awesome, thought provoking post.
A commentator earlier in the week and I'll have to find it, pointed to what the US could do. For instance, Russia has wanted to be part of the G8 - - well this commentor suggested that the members of the G8 just disolve and then reform, minus Russia. Of course another option is to keep Russia out of the WTO. Which, just now made me think about just how horrible protests might be here in the DC area when the WTO meets on the monetary fund in the spring.
I hope NATO votes to bring the Ukraine and Georgia in. We shall see in December.
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