Vice President Cheney last night, and President Bush today layed it on the line, and left no question as to what had to happen. I'm watching intently, but I am greatly fearful the damage may have been done already.
I still believe as I did last night what needs to happen. Cease Fire, International Peace Keepers, and long term solution to this problem brokered and executed by and under a UN Mandate. But will this fix the larger problem now?
I don't know if Mr Ian Traylor from the Guardian article is correct on whether this was all part of a master plan by Putin.I think its possible, I know he is smart and savvy enough to do it. As a matter of fact if I could pick 10 people to have dinner with and talk about life and the world he would most definitely be one of them. But I don't even think that's important now to be honest.
The question I am left with, is how much damage has been done to the US and NATO's reputation amongst countries like Georgia. There are many countries around the world that have become democracies and are trying to become stronger and more successful. It is one of the very foundations of our National Security Strategy to foster democracy and human rights and help build up these new countries. But, now, we have one of these countries that considered themselves very close to us and NATO. They had even committed 2000 troops to the War in Iraq. That doesn't sound like much, but that is almost 5% of their entire active duty deployable force from a country the size of the states of Mississippi, Alabama, and Georgia put together. That is a very formidable investment in assisting us and helping the Iraqi's.
Now, when for right or wrong, they are in dire straits, I question if we have done enough. I am by no means advocating attacking Russia. But, there are other things I feel we should have done. These things are called flexible deterrent options, and I wonder how many we could have used. How much of an impact would it have made if before Russia had crossed into Georgia United States Air Force planes brought in extra advisers, or planners from European Command Headquarters? What if certain other leaders within our command structure had travelled to Tbilisi days ago, just to talk with the Georgian President, at the same time Putin moved to North Ossetia to oversee the operations? What impact would this have had?
Sometimes force is not needed. Sometimes presence is more then enough. That physical showing of solidarity amongst friends and allies means a lot. Im very fearful we didn't do enough.
There is one interview today that has stuck in my mind all day. It was a Georgian Army Infantry Major, and I felt a great sympathy and empathy towards him. He was covered in blood, sweat, and mud, and from the look on his face I know what he was feeling, because I've been there myself. But his comments were what hit home. He said Ive lived in a democracy for the last ten years, and I have loved it. Now, we are in the fight of our lives. Where are our friends? Where is the US and NATO. They spit on us. I sat there reading it over and over again for about ten minutes, and to be honest I cant get it out of my head.
I hope its not too late. I hope we can stop this now, and I hope the cease fire goes into effect tonight. But, I hope we haven't damaged our relationships, and our reputation. That is my greatest fear right now.
God Bless America and may he be with our leaders right now.
Bryan
Photo was taken by Uriel Sinai/Getty Images and part of the NY Times article here:
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/08/12/world/europe/12georgia.html?hp Sphere: Related Content
Posts
12 comments:
Your thoughts regarding the US and NATO reputations has also been going through my mind.
Medvedev or Putin had commented last week regarding Georgia's shelling of S.O. that if they wanted the Ossetians to be part of Georgia, their actions sure weren't going to win the Ossetians over. Well, I almost think the same thing about NATO and the US - - if NATO doesn't do anything, doesn't back up Georgia, what motivation will any other former Soviet state/Eastern Bloc country have to be allies with the US or join NATO. Will Russia remind them "Remember Georgia."
I wonder if the US emboldened the Georgians by training their military. Did we give them a feeling of false confidence? One of the articles I read today quoted a US military analyst as saying the US had warned Georgia not to take on Russia.
A Georgian embassy rep on the BBC pulled the parallel of Nazi Germany invading Czechoslovakia.
Hate to say this, since US forces are stretched so thin, but I think we may need to send forces in. Soemthing similar to the blockade of Cuba. Does Russia want to take us on? No - - do we want to take them on? no. Will it stop the fighting - - maybe. Maybe Putin will see our "peace keeping' force and raise us. Can we do anything about it? - - we are a bit over extended right now.
The interviews I've heard have tugged at my heart - - references to being slaves. We Americans have no idea how good we have it.
Major, your coverage has been absolutely excellent. Sorry I haven't had time to post, but your blog has been an invaluable asset in following this story.
Thank you Major.
Rangersgirl,
I know, its bothered me all day. I think the remember Georgia issue might become a very significant one.
I dont think so about the US Training. We've been working with them for a long time, and they are smart. They know they dont have the ability to take on the Russian Army. I do wonder what they were thinking when they crossed the border. I understand the arguement about being mortared and sniped at. But, when it became obvious what Russia was doing why not pull back immediately, or at least modify your objectives significantly? I'm not sure.
Well, I think there are a lot of things we can do without comitting significant ground forces from US. Theres elements within Europe that are perfect for humanitarian support and general security missions. Army Staff assistance from EUCOM to their Army is also low intensity. I would also look to something like the ARC or Canada for an International Peace Keeping Force. That way, they are not directly tied to it/ involved, and hopefully would add legitimacy to the UN Mandated Mission.
Your thoughts?
Bryan
Hi, friends. Here is perspective from Russia.
We see TV reports about all NATO militarizing Georgia during last years, selling weapons, giving money, training -- ok, it is support if growing democracy. Two years ago Georgia forces went to Abkhazia, Kadorsky gorge -- neutral territory stated from 1990's agreements. Were have NATO been when it happened? Georgians do not left Kador. Now, two hours ago, Abkhazia started full power operation no strike out Georgian forces from their territory. Russian military left this region -- there is nothing thay can do to stop Abkhazia/Georgia fire.
You think Georgia have rights for Abkhazia and Osetia? We here see osetians call georgians a fascists and do not see democracy but fascizm -- people report Georgian solders open cells and fire in hiding civilians, people call on radio from Osetia and report extermination from Georgian solders, we see on TV osetian woman cry and thank russian solders for saving them.
There is a girl working with my wife. Her husband close relatives live in Tskhenvali -- they only was able to phone yesterday, they sit in cells. They confirm Georgiand shoot civilians and pursue and kill wounded. His Grandfather and Grandmother fine, uncle wouded, a man hiding with them went out and was killed.
For you, on other side of the world, it is democracy. France and Saakashvilli sign papers say me must withdraw forces without any guarantees Georgia keep peace and attack again -- the document of givivn up Osetia and Abkhazia to Georgia. Oserians do not give a shit for this democracy and call it fascizm. For many people here ithis fachizm is sponcored by US and NATO, you see?
Now news reporters in Tskhinvali -- I see ild men again report Georgians "clean" cells killing civilians, he said genocide. An old main say this is a Georgian end -- the current Georgia is fachizm. An old woman spit on the ground and say American Democracy! This is what osetians feel!
You see, what is the restoration of constitutional state and a democracy to one is turns a fachism to other.
The question is is it for real or Russian propaganda? I dont know. Here is the video, an American man living in south Osetia says US and Georgian leaders are responsible for the violence that has killed 2000 people in the region. Joe Mestas, who witnessed days of shelling, told RT that Washington will have to answer for the violence:
http://ru.youtube.com/watch?color1=0x402061&color2=0x9461ca&v=cRl3qArJO-o
He say what Bush and Saakashvilli do is a Genocide and if America support Georgia it is no better than Saddam Hosein, America get out of here and do not suport Georgia, it is not a war between military but extremination of osetians and so on...
Bryan, do you beleive him?
Just red what I wrote, so many typos, sorry for that, you may not read but see this and tell me that you think:
http://ru.youtube.com/watch?color1=0x402061&color2=0x9461ca&v=cRl3qArJO-o
Just heared Churkin explaned why we not sign France peace plan proposal...
The plan say:
1. Stop fire.
2. Provide medical help.
3. Withdraw forces.
It is not said anything more precise about this points but said that why we cant sign:
1. There is no exact estimation of Georgian authorities deeds.
2. The second point I do not remember.
3. There is no exact requirement for Georgia to sign document of not attacking Osetia and Abkhazia again.
So the main point is -- Georgia still do not agree to left Abkhazia and Osetia alone, sign papers of not attacking in future. Till then we will keep our military presence proportional to threats. This is Russian ultimate requirement of our diplomats. They request this document signed long before this war starts but Saakashvilli do not agree.
Interfax reports USA blocks 12 august Russia-NATO meeting which Russia asked before. But NATO representatives will meet with Georgia one on 12 august. Rogozin says it is because american delegation do not want in presence of their alliance colleagues to "hear complicated questions of russian representative about envolvement of USA in development of tragic events around South Osetia":
http://lenta.ru/news/2008/08/12/nato/
-----------
Medvedev said our operation to force peace goes to end and I saw our military representative (Nogovicin) press conference, he said we do not advance our army or peacekeepers to Georgia but our patrools operate on georgian territory, they do not confirm georgian army stops military actions, he said 58 army entered to support about 500 peacekeepers with light arms against 12 times more georgian army and 58 army will go back after georgians stop fire and sign non agression agreement.
He also said that georgians military operation, it was a secret information, was called "Clear Field".
-----------
I found funny article, it is political one against Republicans and Bush, read the comments too:
http://www.infowars.com/?p=3887&cp=all#comments
Here is the cite:
Except for the Washington Post, the entire world knows that Georgia (the birthplace of Joseph Stalin, not Georgia USA) initiated the aggression that killed Russian peacekeepers and hundreds of civilians in South Ossetia, peacekeepers who were there with the blessing of Georgia and international agreements.
The true facts are available all over the world press. But the “liberal” Washington Post serves up the lie that Russia has attacked Georgia and conceivably plans to conquer all of Georgia. “This is a grave challenge to the United States and Europe,” thunders the Bush Regime’s mouthpiece, aka, “the liberal media.”
Thirsting for blood, the “liberal media” declares: “The United States and its NATO allies must together impose a price on Russia.”
Here we see the combination of idiocy and delusion in one sentence. The United States has proved that it is incapable of occupying Iraq, much less Afghanistan. Russia has a large trade surplus. America’s NATO allies are dependent on Russian natural gas. Yet the “liberal” Washington Post wants a bankrupt US and “its NATO allies” who are dependent on Russian energy “to impose a price on Russia” for defending its peacekeepers!
Sergey,
It is great to see you again, hope all is going well for you.
I posted the news stories, in the latest update, thank you so much.
Im running like crazy right now this morning, so its going to be a little bit until I can write back about your other comments. But, I didnt want you to think I was ignoring you.
Just may take me a little more time today.
I hope this finds you doing well:)
Bryan
Sergey,
No, dont apologize, I have always been impressed by Europe and other nations, that learn english even though it is not their countries language. Trust me, its better then most of us do here in the states.
I think the first issue is that the Russian Government still sees NATO as an enemy force. This is not just the case anymore. Just because the US and or NATO is working with a country to help it, doesnt mean that we are doing it to try to "get" at the Russian Government. But, everytime I see this happen, that seems to be the impresion of the Russian Government. Now I temper that comment with I can understand where they are coming from though. After years and years of the cold war, old habits die hard. But I think its something we need to both work through, to foster that level of understanding of one another.
Not that I question Joe's integrity, but in the middle of a firefight when your not a combatant its hard to tell whos indirect fire is whos. So as far as shelling goes, that needs to be investigated. What Im more concerned with right now, is the eyewitness accounts that you talked about, with face to face killing. That concerns me greatly. It is one thing for civilians to horribly and tragically be caught in a cross fire. It is another one when men kill people in cold blood. That is where I really want to see some answers about what happened.
I have to run again for now, ut will write more, her ein a little bit.
Hope this finds you doing well my friend.
Bryan
Bryan-
Great site!
Was wondering if you had thought of the possibility that Georgia played us. They now have a NATO committee where they didn't before. They now have German/French and others' support for joining NATO- whereas before they didn't. And NATO has canned Russia's NATO committee. Abkahzia and S. Ossetia weren't Georgian for all intents and purposes- Russia already had troops there. If Russia hadn't overreacted and gone to Gori (what long-term did they accomplish going there anyway?), no-one would have probably been upset. Instead it looks like the status quo in terms of sovereignty in Georgia- and Georgia gets a huge tilt their way in NATO.
I actually am not surprised at the Russian response- and surprised we didn't see it coming. Lots of blogs on strategic communications seem to agree that we say one thing and then support another. Are we for breakaway republics, or aren't we? Are we for semi-autonomous states deciding what country they should be apart of, or aren't we? We don't seem to be consistent- and that comes across as being hypocritical and arrogant in many corners of the world. I don't say it quite as articulate as these guys do: http://comops.org/journal/2008/08/15/public-diplomacy-lessons-learned/
v/r, your buddy down the hall:
- MAJ G. Martin
4C
GM,
Hey brother, how are you? Thanks for stopping by:)
I honestly have. I dont think so though, and heres why.
1. I think they were counting on Russia to not react the way they did.
2. I dont think they would sacrifice as much as they stand to lose right now.
They may be a shoe in for NATO now (I hope) but I think they were caught with their pants down on this one. They never thought the 58th Army was posturing right across the border and the Black Sea Fleet was within 24 hours of sailing. Their soldiers walked into a trap I believe.
As far as how we didnt see this, I dont know. I would think that level of activity would have set off some red star clusters to some analyst somewhere. Especially since the combat armor would have taken some time and a large staging area to put on.
I agree with you about freedom. And its not just that. There was a couple very good interviews with Georgian Military Officers during the combat phase, and they were pissed we werent there. How much face did we lose with that also? Or even worse, how much face did we lose in places like the Ukraine and Poland? Poland wanted a whole additional addendum to the Missile Defense Deal talking about physical support to them in case of an attack. Was this additional requirement spurned on by this?
Bryan
You make some good points. I'm not sure about the strategic advantages we get from supporting Georgia, though. Of course everyone being in NATO and singing kumbaya would be nice- but, I see where Russia is a little threatened by many of their former republics joining us- especially their neighbors.
Russia is resurgent now, arguably more orderly now than in the past, more wealthy, and Putin is flexing muscle. I'm not so sure we should be fighting a resurgent Russia- for now anyway. I'd think we would want a more stable Russia- and if I was Russian I would probably enjoy what Putin has done so far.
For us to back Georgia prior to this, want missiles in Poland, etc.- just seems to me to be poking a bear in the eye- one we aren't going to oppose militarily any time soon, nor should we want to (wasn't that what we were trying to avoid during the Cold War?).
I guess I'm just not convinced that what we are getting from supporting Georgia is worth the potential negatives of opposing Russia- especially since I don't think the S. Osettians are upset about what Russia did...
- G
Post a Comment