After this weekend's fiery rhetoric by their President and chief Clerics I was waiting to see what was going to come next. We didn't have long to wait. (NY TIMES ART) :
Iran warned Monday that it could easily close a critical Persian Gulf waterway for oil shipments and claimed possession of a new long-range naval weapon that could sink enemy ships nearly 200 miles away.
It was unclear what provoked the warning, made by Iran’s Revolutionary Guards, but it followed the weekend expiration of an informal deadline for Iran to respond to incentives from world powers to curb its uranium enrichment activities. The United States, which has warships deployed in the Persian Gulf, has said new sanctions should be imposed on Iran for failing to respond to the deadline.
The Iranian warning coincided with word that Iran’s chief nuclear negotiator, Saeed Jalili, spoke by phone on Monday with the European Union’s foreign policy chief, Javier Solana. Mr. Solana was expected to report back on the conversation to the representatives of the six countries — the United States, Russia, China, France, Britain and Germany — that are leading the demands that Iran stop enriching uranium, Agence France-Presse reported.
In comments carried by the semiofficial Iranian news agency Fars, Gen. Mohammad Ali Jafari, the head of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards, said that Iran was capable of imposing “unlimited controls” at the Strait of Hormuz in the Persian Gulf, an important international oil route.
“Closing the Strait of Hormuz for an unlimited period of time would be very easy,” he was quoted as saying.
General Jafari gave no details about the type of naval weapon involved in the recent test, but he said it was Iranian-built and “unique in the world.”
He said it would have the range to reach enemy warships in the Persian Gulf, an apparent reference to United States warships which have been conducting naval maneuvers in the Gulf.
The first question being can they do this? Can they shut down the Straights of Hormuz? I don't believe they can do it for a long period of time, but they definitely could interdict the trafficabillity of the straights. Since the 1980's they have threatened this and done it from time to time. Their high speed attack boats and mines were semi-successful in the 1980's until the US Navy directly intervened and began safe guarding the Straits and the Gulf. But why this talk now?
Theres two reasons why the Iranian's have gone this direction. The first is the ability to wave their saber right now in front of their neighbors. They have turned down the offer of freeze for freeze, and now need to solidify their position and their aspirations towards being a regional power. The one way that they can, is the same way they always have, and that is to be a neighborhood bully. They may not be able to close them down, The Straights, for the amount of time they want, but the threat towards the US and the EU is a way for them to build face amongst their regional neighbors.
The second reason is by threatening the Straights of Hormuz they can hope to effect the price of oil. As we have seen over the last couple of months, with any instability in the region, the price has jumped up. Now with prices coming down, it is a way for them to fire back at the West, and try to raise the price again. Also, if they raise it right now, they can effect the price of oil leading up to Labor Day. They are not stupid, life would be much easier if they were.
As I have said before, Sanctions must be put in place by the UN Security Council, ALL nations must adhere to them and they must be strictly enforced, and the people of Iran need to change their leaders. That is the only way we can see long term stability and change within Iran. The UN, EU, and the US can only do so much, it is up to the people of Iran now.
God Bless America
Bryan
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/08/05/world/middleeast/05iran.html?_r=1&ref=world&oref=slogin
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I am curious about what this "Unique in the world" weapon is. I say "bring it on". Not in a provoking kind of way but in a not changing kind of way. I think a lot of it is hot air.
Do the Iranian people really want to change their government? I also don't see all the countries of the world adhering to sanctions.
BTW, thanks for posting thought provoking discussion pieces. Wish my brain weren's so wrapped up in software right now.
Rangersgirl,
I agree, its nothing more then some type of modified surface to surface missile. IN general their military exercises are a lot of hot air, IE the missile photo shoot:)
They did want to change it and they tried in the late 90's. They succeeded for awhile, but then got put down pretty hard. Then when certain olive branches were extended to us, we also denied them. This was all before President A of Iran, and much of it may have helped considerably to put him in office.
The youth population still wants change, but has taken an attitude of I'd rather have a job and make a little money like this then risk going to jail. They dont see an upside to it right now.
I do believe they could be convinced that they are wrong and life would be better with the changes they want.
Bryan
Regarding the youth populations, very aware of their "like" of western culture and wanting to be more western. Also understand their attitude of not wanting to rock the boat too much.
How do you propose convincing them life could be better with a new regime?
Rangersgirl,
Thats a long answer...lol. I almost think a seperate article:), I think I will actually do that. But here is a Bottom Line Up Front.
1. We need to engage them. We used to do this through Voice of America in the Gulf Region. But that has been in a steady state of decline for the last decade and a half. That and radio is now only about 33% of the potential. We need a concerted effort through radio, internet, and TV.
2. We need to engage the exiles in our own Country and Europe to start talking to people back home. We also need to let these people know, that we wont leave them high and dry and that we support them.
3. We need to ensure that the youth within the country understand that we do not hate them, dislike them. We disagree with the current administration and that it is in their own best interest and the worlds that they change their form of government.
Theres a lot more, but like I said thats kinda a beggining. I think your question is awesome though, and I want to devote the time to it, that it requires to answer it correctly.
What do you think so far? Shortfalls or potential shortfalls?
Bryan
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