The news today has been back and forth and all around. First the Russian's were attacking towards Tbilisi and then they were stopping. Then they were isolating Gori and Poti while irregular forces were looting and attacking the city. The important part is not what happened today though but what needs to happen.
First off, all parties must abide by the cease fire completely, and this applies also to any irregular forces operating now in Georgia. Russian Forces can not use the rationale that they are establishing a security zone or securing military equipment. They are now in a sovereign nation, and that is outside the scope of the cease fire or the original UN Mandate.
Second all elements must return to pre-August 6th 2008 positions. That means that the Russian Forces need to withdraw from Georgia proper. No more operations in Gori, or Poti.
Third, Humanitarian Assistance to the displaced persons within Georgia and South Ossetia needs to be flown in. If the Russian Forces have South Ossetia that is great, we are obviously flying assistance into Tbilisi. But, the people need food, shelter, and medical aid.
Fourth, the UN needs to put in place a neutral party to oversee the boundary between South Ossetia and Georgia. Once that is in place, then investigations need to take place, and a lasting long term solution needs to be put in place.
I have not been highly critical of Russian Forces until now, but I think the movements today were completely stupid. One, they sent the world into a spin today about the Russian's actions and cost much in public opinion. Two, they brought into question their legitimacy. Up until this point they were stating they were there for the sake of the people of South Ossetia. Now, due to the movements, most of the West thought they were on the road to Tbilisi for awhile. Now, the opinion is becoming one of distrust and mis-understanding. Personally, I'm not sure why they did it, or what they were up to. Maybe something, maybe nothing. But, I even find myself thinking, ok, whats really going on guys?
Opinion is something that is all about perception. For right or for wrong, what people think they see, is what becomes their opinions. Today people thought they saw a Nation advancing on anothers capitol. A few days ago people thought they saw genocide. Maybe they did, maybe they didn't. But what is important is they thought they saw that, and that has shaped their opinion and beliefs. What we call Information Operations and Strategic Communications is vital to a nation, and must be always remembered. To lose that battle, is to lose the war of opinions and quite possibly the overall war.
God Bless America
Bryan
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A Deserved Demise
9 minutes ago
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I think the NYTimes had an article today about what effect this will have on the Ukraine. I also can't remember if it was the NY Times or Wash Post that had the US side of things prior to Georgia making its move. Misunderstanding of intent on Georgia's part maybe? They didn't quite get the nuance of the US military delivering aide and requesting that Russia allow US planes through the air space and ships through to the port. Georgia announced that the air port and the sea port would be secured by US forces. Pentagon had to quickly come back and say "Uh-uh, not what we said."
When BBC questioned the Russian envoy to the UN about the looting being done he responded along the lines that that wasn't Russia's problem, that was Georgia's fault because all their police fled and they aren't providing security for their people. What a sucky answer that was.
Agree with you 100% on the neutral party needs to come in and enforce the cease fire and get everyone back on their side of the line.
What you have said about perceptionn is very important - - truth is how you see it and you can have two people looking at the exact same thing and see it completely different.
The whole creating a de-militarized zone explanation is a bunch of crap.
Do you think NATO will be more likely to vote Georgia and the Ukraine in the 'club' in December - - that is when the vote is coming up. Do you think Russia will put pressure on the Ukraine as December approaches? What kind of impact or influence will the US be able to make with a lame duck President or if after the elections a new President who isn't sworn in yet?
Just what I see here from blogs and news.
Saakashvili telling what Russia bombed Tkshinvali and attacked Georgia. CNN not shows the start of a conflict and shows reports from the time our army came to save our peacekeepers. Western news shows Georgian heavy fire at night, when our tanks moving during a day, and they comment that we invaded, attacked, bombed villages and so on.
Saakashvili say later we move to Tbilisi, advance, surround ports, bomb civilians, western mass media show his speeches and comment as if it is true.
Our news show all this to us and say it is complete lie and disinformation, show fake CNN videos etc. Our officials say there is no plans to invade Georgia or move to Tbilisi and all the military movement on their territory is demilitarization -- Georgians run away dropping their artilery (a saw dropped artilery photo) and to keep situation under control -- police left some regions to not to meet Osetians.
Our liberal politic Jirinovsky said we have soft and democratic government, our reaction is too soft and if he was a president for the life of one our peacekeeper he would bomb Tbilisi.
The mood on the blogs is that Saakashvilli do not want to sign non agression documents, nobody cant trust him because his lies are so funny, and if we do not manage to get rid of Saakashvili -- by force or by negotiations -- US will support him with money, he bilds army again and started all over again.
There is a common opinion about internationalization of a problem -- we see massive support to Geogia from US officials, threats of Russia with sanctions, and many agree that if the Russian peacekeepers will be in the minority this will cause Osetians to be slowly pushed out or even exterminated and possible attack to Abkhazia will not be prevented as US see this as a restoration of constitutional state, a normal thing.
What I must note, is completely consistent position of our officials -- they very calm and stand as a rock -- not as Saakashvili hysteria on TV and meeting.
I see a lot of jokes about US officials give hope to Saakashvili that they will support his military actions with force and now seems to use Saakashvilli. And really I see him do all that he can to get US in the mess he started. The ports will be secured by US forces, you see? He can't be trusted.
So I see completely different information -- a massive theater of lie.
Hello, Bryan,
Just try to filter all the bulsheet provided by both of western and Russian media basing on general sense and comparing with other sources.
1. "South Ossetian Irregular forces increased their attacks of Georgians by about 700%". 700 % regarding what??? Headcount of Georgian army in war time is more than all population in SO and 30 more than "army" what SO can have. What and how they can attack out of their region?
2. "Georgian Military invades, and possibly gets out of hand, (I still say possibly just because I want an investigation.)" Looks like. President Saakashvili a few days ago in panic said that Russian tanks are coming to Tbilisi, then they found there are their own tank columns; looks like full lost of control. But needs to be checked.
3. "Russians respond, push georgians out of South Ossetia, but then dont stop and push down to Gori and Poti, and blockade the coast, and then make a few weird movements towards Tbilisi" Also to military base near Kutaisi and Seneka. Destroyed all heavy weapons and drowned 3 warships attacked Russian ships one day before; did not come to cities and returned back, leaving block in base of Seneke "to prevent from usage in military goals".
Gori looks to be another story; this town (BTW, Stalin war born there) is some 20 kilometers from Osetia and is fully abandoned by population and authorities; I beleive that Osetian militiamans can visit it to pillage; yesterday Russia applied to Georgia to sent police there and today will return it back to Georgian authorities as soon as police come (source : http://top.rbc.ru/politics/14/08/2008/221393.shtml , confirmed by Georgian Department of the Interior).
And a few words for your better understanding of situation :
1. Osetian militiamans (like also the most of volounters sitting in Russia now) is rabble without central control; they fighted during the war but now they probably will start to pillage everything like in first days in Iraq; main task is to return them back to Osetia and force them to build new houses insteade of fighting.
2. In past 200 years Georgia was independent for 21 year (1918-1921, 1990 - till now). For this time they've started 7 wars with neighbours/own parts and 1 civilan war. Lost all with the same scenario : first they occupied the territory (Georgia is the biggest nation in Qauqas with the biggest army), then got partisan warfare, then return back having burning region on the back. It was really big mistake for US to arm such country (BTW, Lavrov said he warned Rice about this but she told that "everything is under the control") and I think in near future it will be forbidden for them to have strong army; right now the main weapon supplier stopped any supply to Georgia.
Some info about suppliers is here : http://www.kp.ru/daily/24099.5/326742/ , main suppliers are Bolgaria, Izrael, Turkey and US.
3. Economically Georgia is one of the poorest ex-USSR country, 1/4 of population is moved to Russia and their money transfers provides 10 to 25 % of Georgian budget.
What I think will be in near future is :
1) UN will vote the resolution today or tomorrow
2) Neutral (not Russian nor US) peacekeeper will replace Russians in Georgia; Russian trops will return back from territory of main Georgia but will be kept in Osetia/Abkhasia for at least some time
3) Osetia and Abkhasia will have one more referndum about independence and there will be Kosovo scenario
4) Saakashvili will continue his personal benefit performance under TV camera and probably will be elected again
5) Georgia will continue as independent country but will not have the strong army in near future; most likely it will be unoficial but it will be.
6) Russia and US will continue the blame in UN but there won't be any real economical sanction etc.
5) USA will attack Iran in very near future wnd will close one more problem.
Bye for now.
Andrey
Small add-on about army size :
Georgia - abt. 30 000 people in peace time, 100 000 with reservist , Osetia - 2500 (max.15000), Abkhasia 4500-10000 (max.28000).
Sergey and Andrey,
I hope this finds you both doing well. Believe it is about 0430 your time so an early good morning:)
I agree with both of you. Perception is reality, and if people do not explore an issue from multiple view points and try to find the truth of the matter then they fall victim to not understanding the whole story.
Thats one of the reasons right now, I want to see an international third party neutral peace keeping force put in place. That way, one it adds legitimacy. But two, if a neutral third party sends a report or investigation its veracity is hard to question and dispute from the other side.
I hope your wrong about Iran though. I hope that a solution can be found through sanctions, I hope.
Bryan
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