Last night I talked about why I am hopeful about Iran and the potential for change right now. Tonight, I wanted to talk about what this could mean if that came to fruition.
First, like I said last night, as I refer to democratic styled governance in this post, I do not mean something that looks like us. I mean a form of governance that the Iranian's choose for themselves, is more democratically structured, and less authoritarian. With that being said; what is so important about a country being democratically styled?
A democratically styled nation-state has a very small propensity of going to war with a neighbor. There are many reasons for this, but a large one is the ability to conduct meaningful conflict resolution, and that nation-states higher degree of polity influence on the government's decisions. In a authoritarian regime going to war is easy, the leader says go, and they go.
The second main reason is I am hopeful that a change within their government would lead to less adversarial conditions between us and Iran. There is much that we and the entire Middle East stand to gain from a condition such as this.
Some of the first conditions that leap to mind are greater help in Afghanistan, possibly pressure on the Palestinians, and greater access for all to natural resources. I know I am being very, very optimistic right now. But, change always has to start somewhere.
The other area that I see as critical for this type of change is within the balance of power in the Middle East. Iran is a Regional Power, and growing. A more democratically structured Iran would hopefully be more of a player within the world community. Instead of being labeled as a pariah due to their government's support for certain terrorist organizations and issues with the IAEA.
Now you notice I did not refer to the Iranian People. The reason for that is I truthfully do not believe in general that they have ever wanted to outright support terrorist organizations. There is a major difference between what a nation's government does, and what the people may want. I believe that this is a key difference that is part of what is showing itself within these protests.
To summarize, a more democratically styled Iranian Government can have a huge impact on the Middle East. It would do much to defuse present tensions, it would provide help in combating insurgencies within Iraq and Afghanistan, and aid in natural resource production and transportation.
Coupled with last nights thoughts, that is what I am hopeful about. I am hopeful that this is a beginning of changes that can benefit all of us together.
God Bless America
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